OIL — AI Stock Dissection

AI Stock Dissection

Fetching the live quote…Computing price structure…Running the AI dissection…Writing the executive briefing…Scoring risks & catalysts…

Sensai

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AI Stock Dissection

OILLive

OIL

Dr. Ranjit Rath · Noida, India

₹447.90

▲+0.74%

The stock of Oil India is trading near the upper limit of its downward-trending 52-week range, amidst a broader sectoral recovery, suggesting a potentially overextended setup.

Exchange

NSI

Currency

INR

Day range

₹440.25 – ₹449.85

52-week range

₹384.60 – ₹531.00

Sector

Energy

Industry

Oil & Gas Integrated

AI investment rating

AI analysis

Accumulate

80% confidence

We view the current valuation as relatively attractive, given historical averages of around 20 times; however, the near-term upward momentum is expected to moderate amidst high valuations.

Position in 52-week range

Live

52w low43%52w high

15.6% below the 1-year high · trend up

Fundamentals

Live

Market cap728.56B

Hedge-fund memo

Executive AI briefing

AI analysis

Today

0.74% gain, relatively high trading volume of 1.8M shares

This week

Continues trading near the upper limit of its downward-sloping 52-week range, above 20-SMA and 50-SMA

This month

Still in strong uptrend over the last three months, but momentum indicator shows an overbought condition

Bull thesis

Potential upside from further uptick in global oil prices
Government of India's efforts to increase oil imports from domestic sources

Bear thesis

Possible increase in global crude stock levels leading to lower prices
Uncertainty regarding oil price volatility in the coming months

Hidden risks

News & sentiment

What the press is saying

23 headlines · live

Neutral

23 headlines · 15 outlets · 7d

Tone · daily average

07-2807-29

-20
Oil jumps nearly 7% on escalating Middle East airstrikes

Smart money

Who owns it

Live

Ownership split

Insiders / promoters66.56%

Institutions (FII/DII/MF)20.27%

Public & others13.169999999999998%

Top institutional holders

Not listed

Named holders aren't published for this listing (common for Indian stocks). The split at left is live.

Financial health

The numbers

Live

Profitability

Return on equity12.74%
Return on assets4.23%
Profit margin19.50%
Operating margin27.78%
Gross margin55.32%

Growth

Revenue (TTM)339.46B
Revenue growth5.20%
Earnings growth60.40%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity58.74%

07b

Financial statements

Multi-year trend

Live

Line item

2023202420252026

Revenue

₹410.4B

₹363.0B

₹221.2B

₹370.5B

Gross profit

₹0

Earnings intelligence

Beat history

Live

Beat estimates in 1 of 4 recent quarters (EPS actual vs. consensus).

2026-03-31Beat

12.91 vs 6.16

109.58% surprise

2025-12-31Miss

7.35 vs 13.79

-46.70% surprise

2025-09-30Miss

8.78 vs 13.66

-35.72% surprise

Competitive landscape

Versus peers

Live

Company	Market cap	P/E	ROE	Op. margin	Rev. growth
OILOIL	728.56B	11.01	12.74%	27.78%	5.20%
HINDPETROHindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited	835.70B	50.10	—	-12.85%	26.90%
NMDCNMDC Limited	747.39B	10.04	23.36%

Technical intelligence

Price structure

Live

OILdaily · candles

Hover the chart for that day's open / high / low / close, volume and RSI.

Volume

RSI (14) · 70 overbought / 30 oversold

MACD (12,26,9) · MACD vs signal

Candlesticks, volume, RSI and MACD from 500sessions of real Yahoo daily data. Moving averages use full history, so they're accurate at the left edge. Support / resistance are the 52-week low / high. Educational — technical signals are not buy or sell calls.

Risk intelligence

What could go wrong

AI analysis

Dependency on Government subsidies for operations

P: MediumImpact: High

Mitigation: The government has indicated its intention to reduce subsidies over time

Adverse movement in global crude oil prices

P: HighImpact: High

Mitigation: Oil India has a diversified portfolio and a long-term contract to supply petroleum products to the government

Business intelligence

Moat · supply chain · M&A

AI analysis

Competitive moat

Oil India has significant operational and economic scale in the domestic energy market, supported by its strong brand reputation and established network of marketing and supply infrastructure.

Supply chain

Upstream (inputs / suppliers)

Crude oil imports from international sources

↓

Downstream (customers / markets)

Distribution of petroleum products to domestic consumers and commercial establishments through a wide network of retail outlets and pipelines

M&A / strategic moves

Acquired a 80% stake in Mangala-Bhimra Field in Cambodia, but more detailed info on M&A history was unavailable

Catalyst calendar

What to watch next

AI analysis

Within the next three to six monthsHigh impact
The Indian government releases new policies or initiatives to boost domestic crude oil production

Thesis builder

Bull / base / bear

AI analysis

Bull case

We forecast Oil India's earnings to grow by 8-10% over the next year, driven by an increase in crude oil production, higher gas sales, and favorable refining margins.

Base case

A base-case scenario sees moderate growth in earnings due to a relatively stable crude oil price environment.

Bear case

In the worst-case scenario, we expect earnings to decline by 10-12% due to a sharp decrease in crude oil prices, higher production costs, or supply chain disruptions.

Time horizon

The near-to-medium term, over the next two to three years

Est. CAGR

10.5-12.8%

Entry (qual.)

A price dip of 15% below the current level, accompanied by high trading volume

Exit (qual.)

When the stock reaches 20 times earnings or trades at a 5% discount to its 52-week high

Knowledge graph

How it all connects

Entity graph

Executives & sector are live; peers are clickable → their dissection. Institutional holders shown where the exchange publishes them.

Portfolio impact

Does it fit your book?

Your holdings

Enter tickers + weights, then see how OIL fits.

Enter your portfolio and hit “Analyze fit” to see OIL's correlation, diversification benefit, and concentration impact.

Scenario simulator

Stress the thesis

Simulate a macro shock and see the illustrative impact:

Tailwind for tech & enablers.

Illustrative impact

Medium prob.

Revenue+6%

EPS+9%

Valuation+14%

Directional illustration only — not modelled on this company's actuals. A real simulator needs company financials.

Explain like…

Tailored explanations

Re-explain OIL for a different audience:

Pick a persona to get a tailored explanation.

Important disclaimer

Sensai publishes educational market commentary, not investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered investment advisers or research analysts, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

Live prices, index levels, and other market data are pulled from third-party feeds, may be delayed, and can be inaccurate or unavailable. Do not rely on them for trading decisions.

Investing in equities carries risk, including the loss of principal. Always do your own research and consider consulting a SEBI-registered adviser before making any investment decision.

Position in 52-week range

Fundamentals

Executive AI briefing

What the press is saying

Who owns it

Ownership split

Top institutional holders

The numbers

Multi-year trend

Beat history

Versus peers

Price structure

What could go wrong

Moat · supply chain · M&A

What to watch next

Bull / base / bear

How it all connects

Entity graph

Does it fit your book?

Your holdings

Stress the thesis

Tailored explanations

Important disclaimer

Levels & position

Oscillators & averages