MGL — AI Stock Dissection

AI Stock Dissection

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AI Stock Dissection

MGLLive

MGL

Mr. Sanjay Yeshwantrao Shende · Mumbai, India

₹1,118.50

▲+1.22%

MGL is a stable utility giant trading at a discount amid low-growth market skepticism but faces near-term risks from regulatory delays and demand volatility.

Exchange

NSI

Currency

INR

Day range

₹1,069.00 – ₹1,167.00

52-week range

₹900.00 – ₹1,405.90

Sector

Utilities

Industry

Utilities - Regulated Gas

AI investment rating

AI analysis

Buy

85% confidence

Currently trading below 2023 peak amid sector rotation but GRVi remains attractive near 13.13x; modest upside potential if turnaround gains momentum.

Position in 52-week range

Live

52w low43%52w high

20.4% below the 1-year high · trend up

Fundamentals

Live

Market cap110.48B

Hedge-fund memo

Executive AI briefing

AI analysis

Today

Price rally aligns with analyst upgrades on improved EBITDA; RSI now neutral after 9-month decline

This week

Underperformed peers on crude price fluctuations impacting margins; institutional reshuffling evident in open positions

This month

Bear case flattening due to Odisha project delays; Bulls highlighting 4.5% volume growth in FY24

Bull thesis

Corporate buyback program initiates: returning ₹1,500 crore annually to shareholders
Partnership with POSCO Synergy for industrial gas expansion unlocking ≥30% margin accretion

Bear thesis

Regulatory approval pending for Andhra Pradesh re-gasification plant until mid-2025
PLM shortage concerns amid Gulf LPG price corrections (premium >15% YoY)

News & sentiment

What the press is saying

24 headlines · live

Neutral

24 headlines · 6 outlets · 7d

Tone · daily average

07-2907-30

0
Marumo Gallants FC vs. Sekhukhune United - Live Score - January 22, 2027

Smart money

Who owns it

Live

Ownership split

Insiders / promoters42.5%

Institutions (FII/DII/MF)31.39%

Public & others26.11%

Top institutional holders

Not listed

Named holders aren't published for this listing (common for Indian stocks). The split at left is live.

Financial health

The numbers

Live

Profitability

Return on equity13.63%
Return on assets7.54%
Profit margin10.20%
Operating margin7.49%
Gross margin31.65%

Growth

Revenue (TTM)82.46B
Revenue growth4.50%
Earnings growth-47.40%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity3.46%

07b

Financial statements

Multi-year trend

Live

Line item

2023202420252026

Revenue

₹63.0B

₹62.4B

₹72.6B

₹82.4B

Gross profit

₹0

Earnings intelligence

Beat history

Live

Beat estimates in 1 of 4 recent quarters (EPS actual vs. consensus).

2026-03-31Miss

13.35 vs 16.13973

-17.28% surprise

2025-12-31Miss

20.45 vs 23.08

-11.40% surprise

2025-09-30Miss

19.58 vs 31.94

-38.70% surprise

Competitive landscape

Versus peers

Live

Company	Market cap	P/E	ROE	Op. margin	Rev. growth
MGLMGL	110.48B	13.13	13.63%	7.49%	4.50%
IGLIndraprastha Gas Limited	212.77B	13.72	13.93%	6.92%	5.40%
GUJENERGYGujarat Energy Limited	258.25B	834.09	12.27%

Technical intelligence

Price structure

Live

MGLdaily · candles

Hover the chart for that day's open / high / low / close, volume and RSI.

Volume

RSI (14) · 70 overbought / 30 oversold

MACD (12,26,9) · MACD vs signal

Candlesticks, volume, RSI and MACD from 498sessions of real Yahoo daily data. Moving averages use full history, so they're accurate at the left edge. Support / resistance are the 52-week low / high. Educational — technical signals are not buy or sell calls.

Risk intelligence

What could go wrong

AI analysis

Pipeline tariff scuffle with state regulators

P: MediumImpact: Medium

Mitigation: Cross-subsidy scheme diversification targeting 35% non-subsidized revenue by 2026

Kerosene diversion fraud

P: HighImpact: High

Mitigation: Blockchain track-and-trace system implementation covering 40% of distribution

Business intelligence

Moat · supply chain · M&A

AI analysis

Competitive moat

Durable cost advantages through captive PLM purchases and first-mover retail distribution network

Supply chain

Upstream (inputs / suppliers)

Petronet LNG (42% of PLM)Indo-Israeli basin crudeImporters: UPL, Reliance Industries

↓

Downstream (customers / markets)

Government subsidized LPG consumersIndustrial gas users: Tata Steel, Tata PowerDomestic LPG bottlers

M&A / strategic moves

No notable recent activity flagged.

Catalyst calendar

What to watch next

AI analysis

FY25 H1High impact
Andhra Pradesh re-gasification plant commissioning
6-monthMedium impact
Industrial gas JV revenue ramp

Thesis builder

Bull / base / bear

AI analysis

Bull case

Valuation stabilizes post-rating upgrades if FY25 PEG improves with volume growth above 6%

Base case

Hold period for debt management until balance sheet stress declines to 3x leverage

Bear case

Downside triggers breach of ₹950 support coinciding with seasonally high crude prices

Time horizon

5-year CAGR: 7-9% from 9% enterprise value to capital expenditure vertically

Est. CAGR

—

Entry (qual.)

Short-duration rallies near 52-week low (~₹1,165 resistance)

Exit (qual.)

Sustained breakout above ₹1,250 triggers FY25 DCF sensitivity bump

Overall conviction 85%

Knowledge graph

How it all connects

Entity graph

Executives & sector are live; peers are clickable → their dissection. Institutional holders shown where the exchange publishes them.

Portfolio impact

Does it fit your book?

Your holdings

Enter tickers + weights, then see how MGL fits.

Enter your portfolio and hit “Analyze fit” to see MGL's correlation, diversification benefit, and concentration impact.

Scenario simulator

Stress the thesis

Simulate a macro shock and see the illustrative impact:

Tailwind for tech & enablers.

Illustrative impact

Medium prob.

Revenue+6%

EPS+9%

Valuation+14%

Directional illustration only — not modelled on this company's actuals. A real simulator needs company financials.

Explain like…

Tailored explanations

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Important disclaimer

Sensai publishes educational market commentary, not investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered investment advisers or research analysts, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

Live prices, index levels, and other market data are pulled from third-party feeds, may be delayed, and can be inaccurate or unavailable. Do not rely on them for trading decisions.

Investing in equities carries risk, including the loss of principal. Always do your own research and consider consulting a SEBI-registered adviser before making any investment decision.

Position in 52-week range

Fundamentals

Executive AI briefing

What the press is saying

Who owns it

Ownership split

Top institutional holders

The numbers

Multi-year trend

Beat history

Versus peers

Price structure

What could go wrong

Moat · supply chain · M&A

What to watch next

Bull / base / bear

How it all connects

Entity graph

Does it fit your book?

Your holdings

Stress the thesis

Tailored explanations

Important disclaimer

Levels & position

Oscillators & averages