MCX — AI Stock Dissection

AI Stock Dissection

Fetching the live quote…Computing price structure…Running the AI dissection…Writing the executive briefing…Scoring risks & catalysts…

Sensai

Reading the tape…Pulling live market data…Setting the scene…

AI Stock Dissection

MCXLive

MCX

Ms. Praveena Rai · Mumbai, India

₹2,717.50

▲+0.15%

MCX is a highly profitable market‑data and exchange platform that has recently surged, reflecting growing trading activity and a robust revenue model.

Exchange

NSI

Currency

INR

Day range

₹2,699.20 – ₹2,777.90

52-week range

₹1,460.80 – ₹3,480.00

Sector

Financial Services

Industry

Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

AI investment rating

AI analysis

Buy

85% confidence

The current price sits near the top of its 52‑week range, suggesting a short‑term overvaluation but still below long‑term upside driven by high ROE and margin retention.

Position in 52-week range

Live

52w low62%52w high

21.9% below the 1-year high · trend down

Fundamentals

Live

Market cap691.64B

Hedge-fund memo

Executive AI briefing

AI analysis

Today

+0.15% in a narrow daily band, trading near 2717.5 INR

This week

Stable, slight upward bias; volume up 5% YoY

This month

Up 8% month‑to‑date, beating many peers

Bull thesis

Robust 200% YoY revenue growth
High profit margin of 54.8%
Low debt at 0.11%

Bear thesis

Price near 52‑week high, risk of pullback
Limited analyst coverage may delay information flow

Hidden risks

News & sentiment

What the press is saying

24 headlines · live

Neutral

24 headlines · 21 outlets · 7d

Tone · daily average

07-2807-29

+70
Crude Oil Futures Surge Over 3% as West Asia Tensions Revive Supply Disruption Fears

Smart money

Who owns it

Live

Ownership split

Insiders / promoters15.05%

Institutions (FII/DII/MF)51.59%

Public & others33.36%

Top institutional holders

Not listed

Named holders aren't published for this listing (common for Indian stocks). The split at left is live.

Financial health

The numbers

Live

Profitability

Return on equity37.88%
Return on assets17.92%
Profit margin54.82%
Operating margin73.86%
Gross margin95.56%

Growth

Revenue (TTM)24.29B
Revenue growth200.00%
Earnings growth291.20%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity0.11%

07b

Financial statements

Multi-year trend

Live

Line item

2023202420252026

Revenue

₹5.1B

₹6.8B

₹11.1B

₹23.0B

Gross profit

₹0

Earnings intelligence

Beat history

Live

Beat estimates in 1 of 4 recent quarters (EPS actual vs. consensus).

2026-03-31Miss

20.78 vs 21.4

-2.90% surprise

2025-12-31Miss

12.04 vs 15.4

-21.82% surprise

2025-09-30Miss

7.744 vs 7.856

-1.43% surprise

Competitive landscape

Versus peers

Live

Company	Market cap	P/E	ROE	Op. margin	Rev. growth
MCXMCX	691.64B	52.16	37.88%	73.86%	200.00%
BSEBSE Limited	1.44T	58.86	36.00%	67.57%	105.10%
CDSLCentral Depository Services (India) Limited	282.15B	61.20	23.91%

Technical intelligence

Price structure

Live

MCXdaily · candles

Hover the chart for that day's open / high / low / close, volume and RSI.

Volume

RSI (14) · 70 overbought / 30 oversold

MACD (12,26,9) · MACD vs signal

Candlesticks, volume, RSI and MACD from 500sessions of real Yahoo daily data. Moving averages use full history, so they're accurate at the left edge. Support / resistance are the 52-week low / high. Educational — technical signals are not buy or sell calls.

Risk intelligence

What could go wrong

AI analysis

Regulatory tightening on exchange fees

P: MediumImpact: High

Mitigation: Diversify fee sources and engage with regulators

Competitive threat from fintech data vendors

P: LowImpact: Medium

Mitigation: Invest in proprietary analytics and strengthen customer relationships

Business intelligence

Moat · supply chain · M&A

AI analysis

Competitive moat

MCX’s entrenched exchange platform, high switching costs for market data users, and superior liquidity create a durable competitive advantage.

Supply chain

Upstream (inputs / suppliers)

Technology vendors for exchange infrastructureData providers

↓

Downstream (customers / markets)

Institutional investors, retail brokers, fintech platforms

M&A / strategic moves

No significant recent acquisitions or divestitures noted.

Catalyst calendar

What to watch next

AI analysis

Q3 earnings release (April)High impact
Potential beat in EPS/Revenue
Fed rate decision (June)Medium impact
Impact on market liquidity

Thesis builder

Bull / base / bear

AI analysis

Bull case

Continued premium pricing on data and clearing services will sustain high margins; the company’s low leverage and strong cash flow allow for reinvestment or dividend enhancement

Base case

Current valuation reflects near‑term upside but remains attractive given the high ROE and stable fee structure

Bear case

A significant correction to the 52‑week high or a slowdown in trading volumes could compress margins

Time horizon

1–3 years

Est. CAGR

15–20%

Entry (qual.)

Wait for a retracement to the 52‑week low range (≈1461)

Exit (qual.)

Target upper 52‑week high (≈3480) or when P/E normalizes to 35–40

Overall conviction 85%

Knowledge graph

How it all connects

Entity graph

Executives & sector are live; peers are clickable → their dissection. Institutional holders shown where the exchange publishes them.

Portfolio impact

Does it fit your book?

Your holdings

Enter tickers + weights, then see how MCX fits.

Enter your portfolio and hit “Analyze fit” to see MCX's correlation, diversification benefit, and concentration impact.

Scenario simulator

Stress the thesis

Simulate a macro shock and see the illustrative impact:

Tailwind for tech & enablers.

Illustrative impact

Medium prob.

Revenue+6%

EPS+9%

Valuation+14%

Directional illustration only — not modelled on this company's actuals. A real simulator needs company financials.

Explain like…

Tailored explanations

Re-explain MCX for a different audience:

Pick a persona to get a tailored explanation.

Important disclaimer

Sensai publishes educational market commentary, not investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered investment advisers or research analysts, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

Live prices, index levels, and other market data are pulled from third-party feeds, may be delayed, and can be inaccurate or unavailable. Do not rely on them for trading decisions.

Investing in equities carries risk, including the loss of principal. Always do your own research and consider consulting a SEBI-registered adviser before making any investment decision.

Position in 52-week range

Fundamentals

Executive AI briefing

What the press is saying

Who owns it

Ownership split

Top institutional holders

The numbers

Multi-year trend

Beat history

Versus peers

Price structure

What could go wrong

Moat · supply chain · M&A

What to watch next

Bull / base / bear

How it all connects

Entity graph

Does it fit your book?

Your holdings

Stress the thesis

Tailored explanations

Important disclaimer

Levels & position

Oscillators & averages